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On Balance: What’s the Score? The Congressional Budget Office and its Role in the Policy Process

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) plays an important role in the federal legislative process. CBO’s score on a given bill—that is, its estimate of how it would affect the federal budget deficit—can determine whether Congress decides to go forward with the bill, modify it to get a more favorable estimate, or simply drop it. Given their importance, debates over CBO’s scores and the methods they use to produce them can be as controversial as the bills that are being considered. While this controversy can be politically motivated (with advocates on either side of an issue arguing for a score that is more favorable to their position), it also stems from limited understanding of CBO’s intended role in the process—and reflects the difficulty of conducting analyses of benefits and costs in the context of policy decisions.

 

Because Congress wanted an objective scorekeeper to develop accurate budget estimates, it created CBO in the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974. Among other functions, CBO is required by law to produce a formal cost estimate for nearly every bill that is approved by a full committee of either the House or the Senate. It also produces informal cost estimates for a much larger number of legislative proposals. This scorekeeping function has become more important over time. CBO’s Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook estimates the current federal budget deficit at almost $700 billion and projects it will more than double over the next decade, and Congress is acutely conscious of the budgetary implications of potential legislation.

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On Balance: Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler, Behavioral Economics, and Benefit-Cost Analysis

Rational action lies at the heart of neoclassical economics. Sovereign consumers make choices that maximize their utilities. By observing the tradeoffs implicit in actual choices, or eliciting tradeoffs for hypothetical choices, benefit-cost analysts impute willingness to pay for desirable policy impacts and willingness to accept undesirable ones. Yet, it appears that sometimes consumers seem to make mistakes. The field of behavioral economics seeks to provide a more realistic psychological model of consumers and other economic actors that helps us understand apparent deviations from neoclassical rationality. The 2017 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences recognizes Richard H. Thaler’s pioneering contributions to behavioral economics.

 

A handful of Nobel prizes have gone to scholars who have mounted fundamental challenges to the assumption of rational action––Hebert Simon with satisficing, Robert Schiller with irrational exuberance, and, most fundamentally, Daniel Kahneman with cognitive limits and judgmental biases. Whereas Kahneman is a psychologist who exported these ideas into economics, Thaler imported them into economics, extended them, and in the process helped create the new field of behavioral economics, which treats apparent deviations from individual rationality as the subject of systematic study rather than just anomalies that can be ignored. 

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On Balance: [Not] Lost in Translation -- International Perspectives on Benefit-Cost Analysis

Since its founding in 2007, the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis (SBCA) has sought to engage scholars and practitioners from across the world. The Society’s current rolls count members from 35 countries. In support of expanding the Society’s international scope, the SBCA co-sponsored a workshop on September 20, 2017—together with the University of Milan and the Centre for Industrial Studies (CSIL)—titled “The Role of CBA in Government Decisionmaking: International Perspectives.” The workshop was held in conjunction with the annual Milan Summer School on Cost-Benefit Analysis of Investment Projects organized by SBCA board member Massimo Florio and CSIL. 

 

Overall, the international forum assembled nearly 90 institutional stakeholders, civil servants, academics, and practitioners representing more than 25 countries to share their experiences with economic evaluation in varied sectors.  In addition to presenters from academia, various public-sector institutions were represented, including the European Commission (EC), the European Investment Bank (EIB), the European Court of Auditors, the JASPERS (Joint Assistance to Support Projects in European Regions) initiative of the EU, the EU Innovation and Networks Executive Agency, and government agencies from Italy, Lithuania and Poland.

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On Balance: Review of "Behavioral Economics for Cost-Benefit Analysis" by David L. Weimer

Behavioral economics finds that under predictable circumstances people sometimes fail to act rationally and in their own best self-interest. In these circumstances, public policies can nudge people towards better choices. For example, people can be nudged to save more, smoke less, lose weight, and buy more energy efficient vehicles and appliances. In addition to providing new insights about how to design public policies (see Chetty 2015), behavioral economics also has implications for how we conduct benefit-cost analysis (BCA). After all, BCA is built on the foundation of neoclassical welfare economics and rationality. This topic has been explored over the years in the Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, notably in a March 2016 Special Issue on [Ir]rationality, Happiness, and Benefit-Cost Analysis

 

In his new book, "Behavioral Economics for Cost-Benefit Analysis" (Cambridge University Press, 2017), David L. Weimer (University of Wisconsin – Madison) pulls together the insights of behavioral economics to provide “useful guidance for those actually doing BCA.” Because behavioral economics has wide-ranging implications for almost any policy, members of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis will very likely find Weimer’s book of interest. 

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On Balance: Consumers Guide to Regulatory Impact Analysis

In the United States and elsewhere, government agencies are required to conduct regulatory impact analyses (RIAs) to weigh the benefits of regulatory proposals against their costs. These RIAs are invaluable tools for informing decision makers about the effects of regulatory choices; even regulatory decisions that are ultimately made on political, legal, ethical, or other grounds will benefit from the structured evaluation of tradeoffs and alternatives that a good RIA provides.


However, dense or complex RIAs can be challenging for policy officials and interested parties to comprehend and interpret, making it difficult to evaluate the evidence presented and to understand the likely consequences of alternative policy choices.

Consumers Guide to Regulatory Impact Analysis

While numerous guidelines are aimed at people responsible for developing RIAs, none are geared toward non-specialist policymakers and interested stakeholders who will be reading RIAs as consumers. To address that gap, the George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center gathered a diverse group of regulatory analysis experts with a goal of helping policy makers and others appreciate the value of RIAs, ask appropriate questions of them, and judge their implications for regulatory policy. The group’s final product, a “Consumers Guide to Regulatory Impact Analysis: Ten Tips for being an Informed Policymaker,” appears in the latest issue of the Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis. The short, open access article is available without a subscription. Here is a brief summary of each of the ten tips.


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